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Commentary
By Wayne Forrest
Seems like it's the season for dumping. Indonesia faces anti-dumping charges on its steel exports to the US and President Wahid is going through the annual "dump Gus Dur" ritual engineered by his rivals, Amien Rais et al. One wonders if this is just the normal democratic process or is something more dangerous and undemocratic at work. What will be the effect of the political bickering on Indonesia's economy and the well being of its citizens ? What can foreign investors and their support networks (AICC for example) do ?
First, I think it has to be acknowledged that this year is different than last; the effort to unseat Gus Dur is more vocal, involving more political groups and there is one and perhaps a second formal censure motion. A formal impeachment process may well occur within the next 90 days. The outcome is far from certain; a popular word I hear to describe the ambiguity is "fluid". I take this to mean that anything can happen.
President Wahid and his supporters are fighting for their political survival using many different tactics. They may well succeed given that the opposition is fragmented and the power of the pulpit considerable. Among the tools in the President's arsenal are: his millions of NU supporters , the Constitution, foreign support, a doomsday scenario. Thousands of NU supporters (Wahid chaired this old-line Muslim self improvement association) have taken oath to defend the President "to death". The President and his supporters argue that Indonesia's Parliament cannot unseat him unless his errors are fundamentally and criminally detrimental to the affairs of State. They question the legality of the MPR --that traditionally meets every five years-- coming together this year to vote on censure motions. Wahid has martialed support through his many trips and meetings with heads of state around the world. Wahid is also telling his people that the country will suffer greatly --may even be facing civil war--if he is unseated.
Does Indonesia face a holy war and a civil war ? I don't think so. Is this mere rhetoric in a culture known for excitation and emotionalism ? Yes, in my opinion. But, the consequences could be severe if a compromise is not reached. The longer the stalemate the longer it will take to repair a severely damaged climate for investment, which is now perceived to be "anti-foreign".
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3)
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