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TABLE OF
CONTENTS
Editor:
Editorial Assistants: Sumarsongko Sastrowardoyo
|
Commentary: by Wayne Forrest During the 35 years of President
Suharto’s New Order government, elections were held every five years and were
called “feasts of democracy”. With a
wink and a nod the ruling Golkar party would secure 70% of the vote and
Suharto would say with his customary reserve that he would continue as
President “if called upon”. Golkar
officials would admit that the elections (with colorful rallies) were more
experiments than anything. This year,
however, Indonesians will have a real election feast with a generous menu of
candidates, parties, regional and national votes. To top it off, many of the
elections (including the President) will be direct for the first time. Lets hope no one gets indigestion. Beginning in April and ending in October (after the
probable Presidential run-off election), From what can be observed from several
polls and announcements of the independent election commission, the mechanics
of organizing the vote as well as people’s awareness of the new voting rules
are moving along. Yes, there are
glitches already detected such as a botched tender for ballot boxes and a
computerized reporting system that is untested, that could delay the
elections. Similarly, a good number of voters are quite fuzzy about schedules
and registration. But, with most
people admitting they receive their information from television, election
officials and individual parties should be able to organize a fair election
similar to the one held in 1999. No
one doubts they won’t be held. The real question will be
the enthusiasm of the Indonesian voter who voted overwhelmingly for change 5 years
ago and has not seen enough of it. The 3-4% GDP growth achieved by the
country with low inflation has brought stability but far from enough
employment. President Megawati and her
party (PDI-P) appear vulnerable to a nostalgic challenge from Golkar (the
party in power during the “good times” before 1997) especially in the April
Parliamentary elections. But, even if
PDI-P loses ground here it does not mean that President Megawati risks losing
the Presidency. The current leading
Presidential candidates of Golkar –the only major party with an open
convention to choose its standard bearer—are a retired general (Wiranto), the
current House Speaker (Akbar Tandjung),and a business leader (Aburizal
Bakrie) all of whom could have a tough time in a two way runoff with
Megawati. The popular Sultan of Jogjakarta (also high on Golkar’s list)
dropped out of the running this month after the Supreme Court overturned
Tandjung’s corruption conviction. The
major Muslim-oriented parties continue to have the same candidates as five
years ago: Amien Rais (a leader of the 1998 reform movement), Abdurrahman
Wahid (former President), Hamzah Haz (currently Vice President), and Yusril
Mahendra (currently Minister of Justice).
Although Tandjung recently said he would possibly be interested to
serve as Megawati’s Vice President, it is probably too early to expect any
serious coalitions until after the April elections. If Golkar does well in April it may want to
compete for the Presidency head on. The independent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (a
retired general and currently Coordinating Minister of Security and Politics)
gains frequent mention as a Presidential alternative to the above list. The problem is that he is better known and
respected outside Indonesia than within where he appeals more to the
intelligentsia than the average voter.
Furthermore, although he has formed a political party it may not
garner enough votes in April to place him on the ballot in July. Its not
clear if an established party would name him as their Presidential candidate
and he probably would not accept the #2 spot on another ticket. Beyond these candidates there are a few true
outsiders (the economist Sjahrir being one) with little name recognition and
then there is the progeny pool. Three
other children of Sukarno and one of Suharto’s daughters are trying to get on
the ballot. Their parties are small
and seem to stand little chance of gaining the required 3% of the vote. Surveys point to economic concerns being
primary over religion as would be expected. The established parties really
don’t differ greatly on policies designed to address unemployment, dearth of
investment and rising basic living costs.
The traditionally secularist parties and candidates will make their
gesture to Islam but in the end religion will only be one of many factors
motivating voters. There will be some talk of issues such as jobs, security,
foreign policy, standing tall internationally, the environment, subsidies,
Islamic law, justice and religion but money, nostalgia, pure name
recognition, and sheer popularity will probably be even more important to the
average voter. In the end, whether or not
Indonesians are enervated by their “year of voting regularly” or grow more
apathetic and fatalistic in the process could be just as important as who
wins. At least for now, business
should have little concern that Indonesia will move away from its basic
neoliberal, reformist economic agenda.
How it implements it and at what pace is the continuing question, all
the more so in an election year unlike any other in
IBRA CLOSES ITS DOORS An Indonesian state agency set up
five years ago to recover bank bailout funds totalling
US$77 billion closed on Friday after clawing back just 28 percent of the
total and with some banks still fragile. The Indonesian Bank Restructuring
Agency (IBRA), formed in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, was
tasked with restructuring the collapsed banking system, promoting economic recovery
and recovering state bailout funds. The government in 1998 issued Rp 650 trillion (now $77 billion) worth of bonds, of
which around Rp 425 trillion was earmarked for recapitalising banks. The rest was to be used to repay
customers of banks which had been closed down. Only 28 percent of that figure has
been recovered from the sale of assets handed over by the owners of the
ailing financial institutions. IBRA chairman Syafruddin
Temenggung has blamed the shaky legal system for
the low recovery rate. He said earlier this month he had tried to file
criminal charges against 10 non-cooperative debtors, three of which made it
to court. "But all three (cases) the
government lost and we cannot put anyone in jail. That's a pity that I can
really share with the Indonesian people out there," Temenggung
said. He also cited the poor quality of
many of the assets IBRA took over, as well as government intervention. In one
case, the collateral was a three-hectare graveyard and in another a plot of
land turned out to be stretch of seabed in Illustrating the point, Temenggung said on Friday that IBRA has left the finance
ministry with Rp 10.8 trillion worth of "free
and clear" assets it could not sell. These have an actual book value of Rp 108.5 trillion. Some Rp
4.3 trillion worth of assets which are still in dispute will be taken over by
a separate government "cleaning up team." Temenggung
has defended IBRA's record. In 1998, he said, Bappenas predicts economy to grow by 4.5% next year The National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) sees the economy growing by 4.5 percent next year, absorbing possibly some 1.4 million new entrants to the workforce, assuming no political turmoil during the general elections. In a written statement on economic prospects for 2004, the agency said it was betting on an increase in all components of growth -- exports, consumption and investment -- to drive the economy faster than this year's estimated 4 percent. Bappenas director for macroeconomic planning Bambang
Prijambodo told a seminar here on Monday that the growth would still be led
by consumption (both government and household), which was expected to grow by
5.1 percent. Editor’s
Note: Citibank Jakata’s Economist, Anton Gunawan predicts a similar growth
rate (4.8%). JITF Ends Mandate, Completes Most Tasks The government, without much fanfare, dissolved in December the Jakarta Initiative Task Force (JITF) after it completed a fairly successful five-year mandate of restructuring most of the private sector's huge debts as it had been asked to do. Having handed over a total of 102 cases worth of US$26.9 billion in debts, JITF managed to restructure 96 cases worth $20.5 billion, or close to 80 percent of the total value, JITF Chairman Bacelius Ruru told reporters. "Most of the debts were dealt with in the form of rescheduling. But there are other ways, which are also popular: debt-to-equity swaps, debt-to-asset swaps and buybacks," Bacelius said. Money Laundering Decrees Completed As promised in its December
economic “White Paper”,
Bank has been accepted as a
new member of the Bank for International Settlement (BIS), its Governor
Burhanuddin Abdullah said. Bank The government had planned to raise the tariff in January 2003 to help boost profits at state-owned PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK), or Telkom, and make the company more attractive to foreign investors. "We need to raise the tariff to make the telecommunications industry more competitive," Djamhari Sirat, the Director General for Telecommunications and Post at the Transport Ministry, told reporters Tuesday. BP Signs Deal To Sell Indonesian LNG To US The deal with Sempra - signed in The deal will begin supplying 3.7 million tons of LNG per
year from the Tangguh project to Sempra's proposed LNG import and
regasification terminal in U.S. Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham said the deal
with Sempra is a "key component" of meeting long-term
Mitsubishi mulls supplying The Mitsubishi Corporation is mulling supplying liquefied
natural gas (LNG) from Mitsubishi's energy business group manager in Jakarta
Mauren Toruan said the firm's subsidiary Sound Energy Solutions had applied
to the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and "After the filing, we will start serious negotiations
to secure five million tons per annum of LNG for the terminal and send a
delegation to
v
TRADE AND INVESTMENT
AICC helps reduce Credit/web fraud AICC is receiving more
complaints and inquiries concerning credit card fraud. The proliferation of
web-based credit transactions, often via home-based businesses, has increased
the risks in exporting to countries like A related scam often
involves an Indonesian seller responding to a web ad. The buyer is asked to wire transfer 50% of
funds to
TRADE WITH JAKARTA, Dec 11 Asia
Pulse/Antara - Indonesia's exports to the United States dropped by 3.12 per
cent year-on-year to US$6.33 billion in the first eight months of this year. Declines were recorded in the export value of electrical
machinery, footwear, mineral fuel, oil & oil products, leather articles
and steel products.
E.U. pushes The European Union this week pushed E.U. Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy met
with Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri on Wednesday and encouraged
her to swiftly put in place such a certification of origin system. The World Bank has forecast that Editor’s
note: AICC has been advocating to the The ruling in favor of Akbar Tandjung, who also leads the Golkar party, will likely be seen as a further stain on a legal system already under fire for corruption. "According to the team of judges, we find that the defendant should not have been found guilty," Judge Paulus Lotulong said in a final summary that precedes the reading of the verdict. v POLITICAL AFFAIRS
2004 ELECTION TIMETABLE Elections are a lively time, fraught with
some anxiety as supporters of various parties and candidates can become quite
emotional. The potential for "disturbance" does exist as
parties have a youth wing that function in the manner of protective militias,
especially during rallies. There is a 4 week campaign scheduled
before each of the elections. In
2004, there are two if not three national elections: April
5th- Election of National and
Regional legislatures (parliament)-parties that earn 3% of the national vote
will be eligible to officially nominate a President/Vice President
ticket. July
5th- 1st round election
President and Vice President-winner announced July 26 September
20- 2nd round election of
President/Vice President (held if the July 5th election produces no
ticket with 50% or more of the vote)-winners announced October 5th,
inauguration October 20.
Parties who have more than 3% of
the vote in the April elections will be eligible to choose a President/Vice
President ticket for the election in July. For the first time in the nation’s
history, Indonesians will vote for a person, not a party, in the Presidential
elections.
Congressman Burton Establishes Indiana Congressman
Dan Burton, a senior Republican on the House International Relations
Committee, will chair a newly formed Congressional Indonesia Caucus.
The Caucus, formally registered with the House Administration Committee, will
serve as an informal, bipartisan group of members of Congress dedicated to
maintaining and strengthening the U.S.-Indonesia relationship. Mr. Burton said “
In In a slum
just a stone's throw from the gaudy mansions of "Over the
years, I've had orders for people from the parties of two presidents, but
I'll work for anyone," said the 30-year-old However, Rizal's is an industry that has blossomed since mobs took to the streets in 1998, ousting the autocratic president, Suharto, and giving birth to a shaky democracy. "Under Suharto, of course, demonstrations were not allowed. You'd be arrested and put in jail," Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a political analyst and former presidential adviser, said. Because
political rallies and campaigns in "It's
become a business. . . . Not all crowds are rented, but it shows political
shallowness and economic need." Bappenas predicts economy to grow by
4.5% next year. By Dan Eaton, Reuters Does He or Doesn’t He Robert Dole, former The Indonesian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs denied on February 13 that Jakarta had hired former U.S.
Republican Senator Bob Dole as an official lobbyist. "It's not correct
that Bob Dole has been appointed as an Indonesian lobbyist in Washington,"
ministry spokesman Marty A. Natalegawa said at a media conference in Jakarta.
"The fact is that Bob
Dole has expressed his readiness to help Indonesia on a case-by-case basis,
but not hired as a lobbyist. There is no type of blanket contract," said
Marty. The Far Eastern Economic
Review, in its Feb. 5 edition, reported that Dole had been hired by the
Indonesian government to further its interests in Washington.
Teenagers Share Views of Living in Reprinted from the Christopher Usher, 13, a student from
v TOURISM/TRAVEL
The
Tourists from 20 countries and one "special territory" will have to pay $25 for a 30-day visa, immigration official Ade Dahlan said. The 20 countries include Under the new policy, only citizens from Citizens of other countries, including the The
February 25- Sidney Jones,
Southeast Asia Director, International Crisis Group, “
March 4- ASEAN Commercial Officers at Citigroup, in cooperation with US Department of Commerce and BCIU
March 25- Dr. Sri Mulyani
Indrawati, Economist and v Economic
Indicators
Source: Government of Indonesia,
Bank Indonesia, Central Bureau of Statistics, US Commerce Department and
Embassy Projections Fiscal Year in Indonesia
is April-March 31, Shares calculated from Indonesian Government Data ( *= preliminary)
v New
Membership Benefits
AICC
pleased to announce several new membership benefits. Remember, you must be an active,
“paid-up” member to receive them as these sponsors will ask for confirmation
of your membership.
Travel: The 5
star Shangri La Hotel in
Rates include a buffet breakfast, free access to fitness center, mileage credits on 29 airlines. Horizon Club guests have express check-in, check-out, complimentary fruit baskets, suit pressing, usage of meeting rooms, afternoon tea, choice of newspapers To reserve
from the Shangri-la has recently
enhanced its already outstanding security procedures.
30% Off New Publication on
Indonesian Politics and Security:
The emerging Indonesian
democracy and reform era is now being analyzed weekly by Kevin O’Rourke’s new
publication, Reformasi Weekly. O’Rourke, a speaker at AICC’s June event
that examined the reform movement 5 years out, is offering up to 30% off his
subscription rates. A regular monthly subscription (4 issues per month) is
$422 and includes up to 10 email recipients in an organization. But with the
20% introductory discount and further 10% to AICC members the rate would be
$303, an annual savings of $1428. Attached
is this week’s edition and an introductory statement with O’Rourke’s
background and complete subscription information. You would contact O’Rourke directly to set
up your subscription (which usually comes as an email attachment) at kevin.orourke@reformasi.info. Please let him know you are a “paid-up”
AICC member and he will check with us to validate. O’Rourke, who has resided in
AICC is pleased to welcome the following new members
to our roster: Consolidated Services International- based in WorldBusiness Capital- a
Stonemount Corporation- import and marketing agent for rubber products from Natural Carpet Company- manufactures carpets in Saxo Bank-Saxo Bank A/S is a global investment bank serving retail and
institutional clients directly and through white label partnerships
worldwide. Headquartered in |
OUTLOOK/INDONESIA is
published quarterly by the American Indonesian Chamber of Commerce, a non-profit
membership organization established in 1949 to promote commerce and
understanding between the
Web
address:www.aiccusa.org